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Unfortunately, A two state modus-vivendi for the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict is on its way out. It seems less and less feasible
under today's circumstances:
1. Palestinian conditions for such an eventuality are far from
acceptable to us Israelis.
2. Our Israeli conception of such an eventuality is far from
acceptable to Palestinians.
3. Our constant Israeli drive at expanding Jewish settlement and
"government land" in the West Bank, while "adopting" Area C
(see below) has made a viable Palestinian State almost impossible
geographically.
4. Palestinians, recognizing the growing geographical unviability,
are becoming quite satisfied with the possible alternative of being annexed
into Israel, and eventually defeating the Jewish Zionist state through the
reality of demography.
True, the Palestinian Authority is trying a bid via the UN to
become a recognized State, and perhaps it will legally succeed. Such a success
would put Israel in a weaker legal position as an occupying power, and make our
legal arguments even less tenable in the eyes of the world. But this legal
maneuver would still change little on the ground. The above circumstances would
still hold true. Little would change in the difficulties of occupation, in the
expansion of settlement, and in the probable lack of desire on both political
sides to actually "want" a two-state compromise.
A two-state compromise, based on maps drawn by either Barak or Olmert, could
have been implemented by us in the West Bank even unilaterally, without yet
relinquishing our military control of the area. It would have meant giving "area
C", which constitutes about 60% of the West Bank a similar status to that
in areas A or B. Of course this would mean the end of easy settlement expansion
into Area C. It would also mean the relocation of many settlements (against
every grain in our present leadership's silo). This would also mean
relinquishing a good deal of the present limitations on economic development. This
would have given the ability to gradually build up and test the geographical and
institutional viability of a Palestinian State.
But this also would have assured us of enough military control when
needed until we came (if ever) to a feasible mutual compromise agreement with
the Palestinians over issues which seem today uncompromisable. It may even have
led us to some type of Federation which still would leave us a greater latitude
and freedom in the realm of army and defense. (This of course, is what we should
have done in Gaza….. Getting the settlements out – definitely YES; but leaving
the army IN until reaching a mutual agreement along with the West Bank. Yossi
Beilin said something like it then, and I totally agreed, but our governments
no longer listened to us cry-baby, goody-goody, crazy Leftists. Not then, and certainly
not today.)
(If you know everything about Areas A, B, and C in the West Bank,
skip this paragraph; otherwise, read …..and weep or smile…..depending on your
political inclination.) Between 1993-95 the Oslo agreements between Israel and
the PA temporarily divided the West Bank into three areas of control, A+B+C.
Areas A and B constituted the populated areas of the West Bank and ceded much security
and civilian control to the Palestinian Authority. Area C gave Israel complete security
and civilian control. Area C was a reasonable Israeli desire to have a
temporary defense posture around all large population areas in the West Bank.
It therefore took all the lands that surrounded those population areas and left
the population areas in A+B as cantons with meager lands of their own
surrounding them. (This is like taking all the land between Tel-Aviv and
Hertzeliya, between Herzeliya and Natanya, between Natanya and Haifa, and from
there till Nahariya and naming it as one district completely surrounding all these
cities and their suburbs.) Of course this was temporary and was to last no more
than five years, and mainly as a defense measure till we get the Oslo
agreements moving.
Meanwhile, 20 years later, Area C has become the greatest
permanent gift to our Right-Wing governments who are looking for ways to
establish as much of a Greater Israel as possible. Why is that?? Well…… Area C
is no longer there as a temporary defense measure. Area C is 62% of the West
bank, surrounding all the population cantons of A+B, while therefore holding
only about 5% of the Palestinian population itself. Area C is convenient for
settling Israelis and has therefor seen a wondrous growth of Jewish settlements
surrounding most cantons of areas A and B. Area C is also suitable for pronouncing it as
government or military land, regardless of actual ownership. (And, of course,
with only 5% of the Palestinian population, it makes it a lot easier to find
ways of making Palestinian life in Area C difficult as an incentive to move on,
or, as is being done in the Hevron area and east of Jerusalem, actually forcing
people out. Given enough time, we may even get area C to be completely
"Arab-Rein".)
A little demography: Area C has today somewhere between
80-100,000 Palestinians. It has about 400,000 Jewish settlers (including 50,000
students in yeshivot and other facilities). East Jerusalem, de-jure annexed to Israel
and a basic bone of contention, already has an additional 200,000 Jews adjacent to
Area C.
And so…….here we are. We failed to set up some type of two-state
situation, and we have succeeded in creating geographic and demographic developments
in most of the West Bank which make such further endeavor assuredly useless. We
are on our way to a de-facto (and perhaps later de-jure) annexation of at least
"area C" into the State of Israel while leaving 40% of the West Bank
as many small separate cantons with perhaps two million (!!) Palestinians and
growing, and each individual canton surrounded by the greater "Area C".
Our right wing leadership sees all this as a win-win situation.
We will have annexed most of Greater Israel, while resolving the demographic
problem by not annexing two million Arabs into the Jewish State.
The "sane" right-wing vision of the future sees these
two million Palestinians living peacefully with municipal civil rights within
their autonomy of separate cantons, hopefully with citizenship rights in
Jordan, but without national civil rights (nor citizenship) in Israel itself. The
"non-sane" right-wing vision is certain of God's intervention in our
affairs. He will legitimize all actions we take to make life miserable for
these two million Palestinians, so as to see their exit from the promised land.
Both visions are unethical, undemocratic, apartheid oriented, and are a certain
way to keep our Army from being a Defense Force to remaining a Police Force
saddled with the need to oppress a constant and growing opposition by the
oppressed.
So where do we go from here ?? ………"we", meaning those
of us who have been fighting to preserve our Israel as a Jewish and Democratic
State with equal civil rights for all its citizens. ……. "we", meaning
those of us who have fought, protested, gotten our feet wet, and also voted for
our governments to do all possible means for arriving at a two-state
compromise.
Seems likely that those "we" will divide up into four
different categories (actually it's already happening):
Category one: Give Up. …….. Join all those leftist and
pseudo-leftists among our Jews in Israel who watched the developments from
their living-room couch and had no time or energy to walk outside and YELL ….
And fight back.
Category two: Never Give Up !! ……..continue a rear-guard action
for a two-state compromise regardless of the geographic and demographic
realities which have overtaken us and assure us that such a rear-guard action
is futile……. An expression of remaining in the world of nostalgia……. What could
have been …. If only.……….oh my, oh dear…….. at least we hold on to our
allegiance.
Category three: Give Up Zionism …….. decide there is no way to
have a Democratic Jewish State under these circumstances and begin fighting for
a Democratic State without apartheid; a state where all citizens are equal… four
million Arabs and six million Jews (Gaza is not in the picture)…… knowing that
down the line we Jews will probably no longer be a majority and will forego our
Zionist dream of a Jewish State.
Category four: Keep Searching !! …….. there may be other formulas
for two peoples living on the same land but in different worlds. ……..perhaps
some kind of Federation ……. Perhaps some kind of more extensive demographic
autonomy extending into the whole of the land of Israel. ………perhaps some kind
of…….something…….
Wait a minute…… this can't be one sided…… there needs to be a
category in which both peoples talk to each other and want to come to a formula
which each can swallow. Who knows what can happen once two peoples talk after
realizing they can't get rid of each other.
Among those of us who have realized that the two-state formula is
no longer viable today, I hear and read about a number of models based on
Categories three and four above. None, so far, seemed feasible to me (explain
and expand? ……perhaps some other time.). But I'm still in the "Keep
Searching" category, and as lame as it may sound I'm into the following
direction:
1. let's agree we can't get rid of each other…. and if so……..
2. talk and talk and talk…….till we get a compromise.
What do we talk about??
1. What we each want.
2. What we each can't give.
Hold on! …..What am I saying? …….Talk? Talk? Talk?
……..compromise??
But the compromise between what we each want and what we each
can't give will eventually bring us right back to some kind of two-state model………
So why leave it……………………………………??????
Perhaps what is no longer physically feasible today will be more
palatable tomorrow.
Once cornered (and we surely are on the way to corner ourselves),
it becomes easier to swallow.